Demographics — Federal (2021 Census)
Population
36.9M
Median Age
41.6
Med. Income
$84,000
Vis. Minority
26.5%
Immigrants
23.0%
0-14
16.0%
15-24
11.7%
25-34
13.7%
35-44
13.3%
45-54
12.8%
55-64
13.6%
65+
18.9%
Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census
| Category | Percent |
|---|---|
| 0-14 | 16.0% |
| 15-24 | 11.7% |
| 25-34 | 13.7% |
| 35-44 | 13.3% |
| 45-54 | 12.8% |
| 55-64 | 13.6% |
| 65+ | 18.9% |
Poll Analysis
Methodology-level readings of the polling data: each pollster's lean versus the rolling average, how much each party's headline figure has moved recently, and where the current numbers land against the seat-projection model.
House effects (last 90 days)
Average signed deviation of each pollster's recent polls from the rolling average. Positive means the pollster has shown the party higher than the aggregate; negative means lower. Methodology-level — not a judgement of any firm.
Abacus DataLPC+0.3CPC+2.0NDP-2.1BQ+0.2GPC-0.47 polls
LégerLPC+3.9CPC+1.2NDP-4.9BQ-0.2GPC0.03 polls
Liaison StrategiesLPC-2.1CPC-0.9NDP+1.1BQ-0.2GPC-0.914 polls
Nanos ResearchLPC-1.5CPC-1.7NDP+1.0BQ-0.1GPC+1.312 polls
Headline-figure volatility
Range (highest minus lowest) of each party's rolling-average percentage over the window. A wider range means more week-over-week movement.
30 days90 daysLPC1.42.8CPC2.42.9NDP1.63.1BQ0.40.6GPC1.01.1
Path to majority (current model)
Feeds current rolling-average shares into the uniform-swing seat projection on the 2025 per-riding result. A simplified estimate, not a forecast.
LPC projected at 190 seats. Majority threshold: 172 (343 total seats).
18 over majority
These are factual, methodology-level readings of the polling data, not predictions.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Abacus Data house effect | LPC +0.3, CPC +2.0, NDP -2.1, BQ +0.2, GPC -0.4 |
| Léger house effect | LPC +3.9, CPC +1.2, NDP -4.9, BQ -0.2, GPC 0.0 |
| Liaison Strategies house effect | LPC -2.1, CPC -0.9, NDP +1.1, BQ -0.2, GPC -0.9 |
| Nanos Research house effect | LPC -1.5, CPC -1.7, NDP +1.0, BQ -0.1, GPC +1.3 |
| LPC 30d range | 1.4 |
| LPC 90d range | 2.8 |
| CPC 30d range | 2.4 |
| CPC 90d range | 2.9 |
| NDP 30d range | 1.6 |
| NDP 90d range | 3.1 |
| BQ 30d range | 0.4 |
| BQ 90d range | 0.6 |
| GPC 30d range | 1.0 |
| GPC 90d range | 1.1 |
| LPC projected seats | 190 / 172 |
Projected seats over time
Our uniform-swing seat projection, recorded each day from the rolling polling average — the same model behind the home-page map. A record we can score against the next election.
LPCCPCBQNDPGPC
Source: MaplePolls uniform-swing model on the rolling polling average (343 seats; 172 for a majority).
| Date | LPC | CPC | BQ | NDP | GPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | 208 | 94 | 24 | 15 | 2 |
| 2026-06-25 | 208 | 94 | 24 | 15 | 2 |
| 2026-07-01 | 207 | 94 | 25 | 15 | 2 |
| 2026-07-02 | 207 | 94 | 25 | 15 | 2 |
| 2026-07-03 | 207 | 94 | 25 | 15 | 2 |
| 2026-07-04 | 207 | 94 | 25 | 15 | 2 |
| 2026-07-05 | 209 | 94 | 23 | 15 | 2 |
| 2026-07-06 | 201 | 101 | 25 | 14 | 2 |
| 2026-07-07 | 201 | 100 | 25 | 15 | 2 |
| 2026-07-08 | 201 | 101 | 25 | 14 | 2 |
| 2026-07-09 | 201 | 101 | 25 | 14 | 2 |
| 2026-07-10 | 201 | 101 | 25 | 14 | 2 |
| 2026-07-11 | 202 | 101 | 24 | 14 | 2 |
| 2026-07-12 | 202 | 101 | 24 | 14 | 2 |
| 2026-07-13 | 195 | 107 | 25 | 14 | 2 |
| 2026-07-14 | 195 | 107 | 25 | 14 | 2 |
| 2026-07-15 | 195 | 107 | 25 | 14 | 2 |
| 2026-07-16 | 195 | 106 | 25 | 15 | 2 |
| 2026-07-17 | 195 | 106 | 25 | 15 | 2 |
| 2026-07-18 | 194 | 107 | 25 | 15 | 2 |
| 2026-07-19 | 190 | 114 | 25 | 12 | 2 |
| 2026-07-20 | 191 | 113 | 25 | 12 | 2 |
| 2026-07-21 | 190 | 114 | 25 | 12 | 2 |
Economy
Indicators referenced in current Canadian politics: inflation, the policy interest rate, and the CAD–USD exchange rate.
Inflation (CPI, year-over-year)
as of May 1, 2026
↑3.2%
Policy interest rate
as of Jul 15, 2026
no change2.3%
USD/CAD daily exchange rate
as of Jul 17, 2026
↓1.4014CAD per USD
Source: Bank of Canada. View on bankofcanada.ca ↗
CPI series: Statistics Canada (via Bank of Canada Valet).
MaplePolls is independent; the Bank of Canada does not endorse this site (see bankofcanada.ca/terms).
| Indicator | Latest value |
|---|---|
| Inflation (CPI, year-over-year) | 3.2 % |
| Policy interest rate | 2.3 % |
| USD/CAD daily exchange rate | 1.4014 CAD per USD |
In Parliament
Current-session bills before the House of Commons and the Senate, sourced from LEGISinfo. Status and sponsor are shown as published; the full text and procedural history live on parl.ca. Not presented as an official record.
C-30Jun 18, 2026
Spring Economic Update 2026 Implementation Act
Status: Royal assent received · Sponsor: Hon. François-Philippe Champagne
Latest vote: Agreed to on Jun 18, 2026
LPC 166 yea (6p)CPC 132 nay (5p)NDP 5 nayBQ 19 nay (1p)GPC 1 nayIND 2 nay
C-16Jun 18, 2026
Protecting Victims Act
Status: Royal assent received · Sponsor: Hon. Sean Fraser
Latest vote: Agreed to on Jun 11, 2026
LPC 167 yea (6p)CPC 133 nay (3p)NDP 5 yeaBQ 17 yea (3p)GPC 1 yeaIND 2 yea
C-20Jun 18, 2026
Build Canada Homes Act
Status: Royal assent received · Sponsor: Hon. Gregor Robertson
Latest vote: Agreed to on Jun 10, 2026
LPC 166 yea (7p)CPC 133 nay (4p)NDP 5 nayBQ 17 yea (3p)GPC 1 nayIND 1 yea · 1 nay
C-11Jun 18, 2026
Military Justice System Modernization Act
Status: Royal assent received · Sponsor: Hon. David J. McGuinty
Latest vote: Agreed to on May 25, 2026
LPC 172 yea (1p)CPC 139 nayNDP 4 yeaBQ 21 yea (1p)GPC 1 yeaIND 1 nay
C-9Jun 18, 2026
Combatting Hate Act
Status: Royal assent received · Sponsor: Hon. Sean Fraser
Latest vote: Agreed to on Jun 17, 2026
LPC 164 yea (7p)CPC 128 nay (6p)NDP 4 yeaBQ 19 yea (1p)GPC 1 yeaIND 1 yea
S-227Jun 18, 2026
Arab Heritage Month Act
Status: Royal assent received · Sponsor: Sen. Mohammad Khair Al Zaibak
C-26Jun 18, 2026
An Act to authorize certain payments to be made out of the Consolidated Revenue Fund for the purpose of improving housing supply
Status: Royal assent received · Sponsor: Hon. François-Philippe Champagne
Latest vote: Agreed to on Jun 17, 2026
LPC 165 yea (7p)CPC 129 nay (6p)NDP 4 yeaBQ 19 yea (1p)GPC 1 yeaIND 2 yea
C-25Jun 18, 2026
Strong and Free Elections Act
Status: Royal assent received · Sponsor: Hon. Steven MacKinnon
Latest vote: Agreed to on Jun 11, 2026
LPC 167 yea (6p)CPC 132 nay (3p)NDP 4 nayBQ 17 nay (3p)GPC 1 nayIND 2 nay
Source: LEGISinfo (parl.ca). Not presented as an official record.
| Bill | Status |
|---|---|
| C-30 — Spring Economic Update 2026 Implementation Act | Royal assent received |
| C-16 — Protecting Victims Act | Royal assent received |
| C-20 — Build Canada Homes Act | Royal assent received |
| C-11 — Military Justice System Modernization Act | Royal assent received |
| C-9 — Combatting Hate Act | Royal assent received |
| S-227 — Arab Heritage Month Act | Royal assent received |
| C-26 — An Act to authorize certain payments to be made out of the Consolidated Revenue Fund for the purpose of improving housing supply | Royal assent received |
| C-25 — Strong and Free Elections Act | Royal assent received |
Parliament patterns
Voted the same side as the government
- Conservative32% (97)
- NDP60% (97)
- Bloc Québécois51% (97)
Most alignedBloc Québécois & NDP 66%
Least alignedConservative & Liberal 32%
97 divisions · 76 on government bills · Jun 12, 2025 – Jun 18, 2026
Same side = a party's majority voting yea/nay the same way as the governing party's majority, across all recorded divisions (the governing party's own row is omitted — 100% by definition). Party position = majority of its recorded votes; a party with fewer than 3 recorded votes on a division is excluded.
Premier approval leaderboard
- 1Wab Kinew · Manitobaas of May 11, 202662%
- 2Scott Moe · Saskatchewanas of May 11, 202650%
- 3Tony Wakeham · Newfoundland and Labradoras of May 11, 202650%
- 4Susan Holt · New Brunswickas of May 11, 202641%
- 5Christine Fréchette · Quebecas of May 11, 202639%
- 6Danielle Smith · Albertaas of May 11, 202639%
- 7Tim Houston · Nova Scotiaas of May 11, 202634%
- 8David Eby · BCas of May 11, 202631%
- 9Doug Ford · Ontarioas of May 11, 202621%
Source: Angus Reid Institute — Premiers' Performance
Premier approval is published quarterly — the latest figures are a couple of months old.
Canadian Prediction Markets
Live odds from Polymarket — refreshed daily
Will Jennifer Flett win the 2026 Pas-Kameesak Manitoba Legislative Assembly by-election?
Yes
99%
No
1%
Volume $13KJul 21, 2026
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?
Yes
7%
No
93%
Volume $9KFeb 15, 2027
Source: Polymarket
| Outcome | Yes % | No % |
|---|---|---|
| Will Alberta join the US? | 3% | 97% |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | 11% | 89% |
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? | 12% | 88% |
| Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? | 30% | 70% |
| Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? | 26% | 74% |
| Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 3.0% and 3.4%? | 22% | 78% |
| Will Jennifer Flett win the 2026 Pas-Kameesak Manitoba Legislative Assembly by-election? | 99% | 1% |
| Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year? | 7% | 93% |
| Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026? | 4% | 96% |
| Will USD/CAD hit 1.45 (High) in 2026? | 45% | 55% |
| Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31? | 22% | 78% |
| Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta? | 16% | 84% |
Party Fundraising
Elections Canada open data — contributions to registered parties — Reporting year 2025
National totals
CPC61,041 contributors
$47.8M
LPC104,748 contributors
$35.6M
NDP
$7.9M28,460 contributors
BQ
$2.2M2,785 contributors
GPC
$1.9M2,898 contributors
PPC
$467K636 contributors
By province
AB
CPC
$7.2M
LPC
$2.1M
NDP
$532K
BC
CPC
$6.3M
LPC
$3.8M
NDP
$1.3M
MB
CPC
$1.0M
LPC
$863K
NDP
$155K
NB
LPC
$393K
CPC
$331K
NDP
$37K
NL
LPC
$145K
CPC
$97K
NDP
$38K
NS
LPC
$840K
CPC
$403K
NDP
$150K
NT
LPC
$37K
CPC
$35K
NDP
$8K
NU
LPC
$10K
CPC
$6K
NDP
$3K
ON
LPC
$12.9M
CPC
$12.4M
NDP
$1.7M
PE
LPC
$102K
CPC
$62K
NDP
$12K
QC
LPC
$2.0M
BQ
$1.2M
CPC
$846K
SK
CPC
$1.4M
LPC
$459K
NDP
$215K
YT
CPC
$61K
LPC
$47K
NDP
$17K
Source: Contributions and Expenses (detailed) dataset (od_cntrbtn_de) — Elections Canada. Version available at
| Party | Total | contributors |
|---|---|---|
| CPC | $47.8M | 61,041 |
| LPC | $35.6M | 104,748 |
| NDP | $7.9M | 28,460 |
| BQ | $2.2M | 2,785 |
| GPC | $1.9M | 2,898 |
| PPC | $467K | 636 |
Your Riding
Source: Open North Represent API · Elections Canada 2025
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© MaplePolls 2026 — Data from Canadian pollsters
Not affiliated with any political party
Not affiliated with any political party
MaplePolls is independent and non-partisan. Party and pollster names are trademarks of their respective owners, used for identification and news reporting only.
5469446 · 2026-07-19