The Liberals hold a commanding lead in the federal race, sitting at 42.5% — well ahead of the Conservatives at 32.4%. The NDP stand at 12.5%, with the Bloc Québécois, Greens, and People's Party rounding out the field at 6.0%, 2.4%, and 2.1% respectively.

In terms of momentum, the Liberal number has edged down slightly (-0.4 points this week), while the Conservative figure has barely moved at -0.1 points. The NDP are the week's notable mover, up +1.2 points over the past seven days.

The overall picture remains one of a substantial Liberal advantage — a double-digit margin separating the top two parties. The more interesting shift at the margins is in third place, where the NDP's uptick has nudged them meaningfully away from the smaller parties. The Bloc's support has held flat, and both the Greens and the People's Party have ticked down marginally.

Readers should note that the rolling average draws on a limited number of recent polls, and the two most recent surveys do not include full party breakdowns, which introduces some uncertainty into the figures for the smaller parties.