The most recent poll — Spark Insights, fielded to Sep 2 — puts the Liberals at 49.0%, 4.4 points above their 30-day average.

The Liberals hold the front at 44.6%, ahead of the Conservatives on 29.7%, but the week's motion sits with the Bloc Québécois, up 5.8 points to 12.5% — the largest move in the field by a wide margin. The Conservatives moved the other way, down 3.4 points to 29.7%, while the NDP eased 1.1 points to 10.3%. The Liberals ticked up 0.5, with minor drift elsewhere among the Greens and the People's Party.

Across the 5 most recent polls the firms agree on who leads but diverge sharply on the Bloc, which shows the widest house-to-house variation of any party here: recent Bloc readings run from 6 to 23, with Spark Insights at the top of that range and the Liaison and Abacus surveys clustered at the low end. The Conservative figures span 29 to 35, the Liberals sit between 43 and 49, and the NDP lands from 9 to 13. Those level differences carry into the top-two gap, which runs from 10.0 points in the Abacus reading to 20.0 in the Spark Insights poll. Spark is the largest sample here at n=6,535, while Nanos is the smallest at n=875. Given that distance on the Bloc number, no single survey should carry the read on its own.

The numbers support a Liberal lead over the Conservatives, 44.6% to 29.7%, and none of the recent polls places the two nearer than 10.0 points — the Abacus reading. Behind them, the third-place contest is live: the Bloc at 12.5% now sits ahead of the NDP on 10.3%, though the Bloc figure rests on readings running from 6 to 23 rather than a settled number, so that ordering is the one to treat with the most caution. The Greens hold at 3.0% and the People's Party at 1.8%.