Federal by-elections

The Conservatives took Chicoutimi—Le Fjord in 2025, edging the Bloc Québécois by 2.9 points. A single Pallas Data poll commissioned by the Bloc Québécois, fielded July 18 with a sample of 317, now puts the Bloc at 30, the Liberals at 28 and the Conservatives at 26. That is one small-sample survey paid for by one of the contestants, so it carries little weight on its own.

If those numbers hold, the seat looks like a three-way contest, with the Bloc, Liberals and Conservatives separated by four points and 13 percent undecided. The thing to watch is whether that undecided share breaks toward any one party in the final weeks. Caveats run deep here: the candidate list is only party-announced and pending confirmation, and the read rests entirely on a lone poll commissioned by an interested party rather than any independent measurement.

The Liberals took North Vancouver—Capilano in 2025 with 60 percent to the Conservatives' 34 percent, a margin of 26.1 points. No riding-level poll has been published for this by-election, so the last general election stands as the only hard number here.

On those figures the Liberals start well ahead, and the Conservatives face a gap of more than 26 points to close. The Conservatives have announced Stephen Curran, a lawyer who was the party's runner-up in the riding in 2025, while the rest of the official candidate list is still pending. With no current polling and only one party name confirmed, there is little to judge the race by beyond that 2025 baseline; whether turnout in an August by-election shifts the picture is the open question.

The Liberals took Beaches—East York handily in 2025, with 68 percent of the vote to the Conservatives' 24, a margin of 44.2 points. No riding-level poll has been published for the 2026 by-election, so the last general result is the only hard number available here.

On the strength of that result, the Liberals begin as the party to beat, with the Conservatives 44.2 points back and no other party close in the 2025 count. What could shift things is turnout, which often runs lower in a by-election than in a general vote and can compress or stretch margins in unexpected ways. A caveat worth stating plainly: only one candidate, Liberal Tanveer Shahnawaz, has been announced so far, and the official list is still pending. Until the field fills out, any read on the race is provisional.