No new polls were published this week; the average stands on polls through 2026-06-15. The number that carries the story is the size of the cushion at the top: the Parti Québécois hold 30.3% against the Liberals on 27.3%, a lead slim enough that it lives or dies on which pollster you lean on rather than on any settled margin.

With nothing new in the field, there is no momentum to report — the standings simply carry forward. What they describe is a clustered front pair, the PQ and Liberals separated by only a few points, then a distinct drop to the CAQ at 21.2%. The Conservatives register 13.1% and Québec Solidaire 8.1%, both trailing well back of the leading trio. It's a race defined by how close the top two sit and how much daylight opens up behind them.

The recent polls are where the apparent tidiness breaks down. The two mid-June surveys, Léger and Pallas Data, broadly line up — each puts the PQ a couple of points clear of the Liberals with the CAQ third, and they sit within a point or two of one another on the front-runner. Mainstreet's mid-May poll cuts hard against that, placing the Liberals well out front at 32% and the PQ back at 23%, flipping the top two entirely. Léger and Pallas also split on Québec Solidaire, with Pallas reading them several points above Léger's single-digit mark. With so few polls in the window and one of them reversing the leader, no single figure deserves to carry the read — the firms genuinely disagree on how tight the PQ–Liberal contest is, and the average is smoothing over that gap rather than confirming a consensus.