The Ontario Liberals now sit on top, ahead of the Progressive Conservatives by a single-digit margin, with the standings holding steady this week and no meaningful movement in any party's support.

With every party essentially unchanged, the story is where the numbers rest rather than where they are heading. The Liberals lead at 39.2%, the Progressive Conservatives follow at 34.0%, the New Democrats hold third at 24.7%, and the Greens trail at 2.1%. That ordering, though, papers over a genuine argument among the firms. The most recent poll, Liaison Strategies on July 21, puts the Liberals in front of the PCs, echoing its own May 16 reading that had the two parties dead level. Abacus Data tells the opposite tale: in both its June 17 and May 20 samples, the PCs lead the Liberals by nine or ten points. Spark Insights on June 15 lands between the poles, tying the two at the same figure. So depending on which house you trust, the top two are either close, tied, or clearly separated in the PCs' favour.

The New Democrats are where the recent polls diverge most on level: Liaison's July reading places them several points above where Abacus and Spark most recently have them, a house-to-house spread of roughly eight points on that party alone. That means the tidy third-place figure in the average masks real disagreement underneath. The wider read is that this average is stitched from surveys telling incompatible stories about the front of the race — some showing a Liberal edge, some a PC lead, one a tie — so no single number should be treated as the settled state of things. With the firms genuinely split on both the top-two gap and the NDP's floor, the safest reading is the range, not any one poll's headline.