No new polls were published this week; the average stands on polls through 2026-06-01. The dominant fact in Alberta remains how close the top of the ballot sits: the United Conservatives lead at 48.0%, but the Alberta NDP are right on their shoulder at 45.0%, a margin thin enough that the province is best read as a genuine two-party contest rather than a comfortable front-runner and a challenger.

With no fresh surveys in the past seven days, there is no new signal to weigh, and the standings hold where they were. Focus, then, on the underlying picture: the UCP front-runner position rests on a margin of only 48.0 − 45.0 points, the kind of gap that leaves the outcome open on any single new poll.

Two firms carry this average, and they agree on the order while disagreeing on the altitude. Ipsos on 1 June had the UCP at 48.0% and the NDP at 45.0%, a three-point split; Mainstreet Research in late April placed both parties lower — the UCP at 46 and the NDP at 42 — for a wider four-point separation. It's the NDP figure that moves most between the two, so no one number here should carry the full story on its own.

The substantive read is a competitive race in which the United Conservatives hold a modest edge over the Alberta NDP, but the foundation is genuinely thin. Only two polls sit in this average, set roughly six weeks apart, and the more recent Ipsos reading rests on a sample of 600 against Mainstreet's larger 3,129. That gap in both timing and sample size means the current figures are better treated as a single snapshot than as a settled margin, and the difference in how the two firms read the NDP is doing a lot of the work in what the average shows.